Female sectoral employment transition, trade openness, and economic growth
Author (s)
Phyo Pont Pont Thu
Abstract
Myanmar’s female workforce underwent a dramatic structural transformation between 1991 and 2024, with female agricultural employment declining from 70.81% to 36.0% while female services employment rose from 19.11% to 45.1%. Despite this significant sectoral shift, GDP growth remained persistently volatile, contracting sharply by −17.9% in 2021, suggesting that female labor reallocation has not translated automatically into sustained economic growth. This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of female sectoral employment transition on economic growth in Myanmar, investigating the mediating roles of trade openness, foreign direct investment, and female secondary school enrollment. Annual time-series data spanning 1991–2024 (n = 34) are analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, complemented by Granger causality tests and a CUSUM-of-Squares stability assessment. The bounds test confirms long-run cointegration (F = 3.75), with both female agricultural employment (β = +11.915, p = 0.079) and female services employment (β = +16.323, p = 0.086) positively influencing GDP growth. The error correction term (ECT = −0.372) indicates adjustment toward equilibrium at approximately 37% annually. Granger causality reveals that GDP growth is driven jointly by the structural system (χ² = 21.642, p = 0.017), with bidirectional causality confirmed between sectoral employment variables. Education enrollment is found to be endogenous, responding to structural change rather than driving it. Policymakers should prioritize gender-responsive vocational training, labor-intensive investment promotion, and removal of institutional barriers limiting women’s formal sector participation.
Keywords: Female sectoral employment, Structural transformation, ARDL bounds testing, Granger causality, GDP growth, Trade openness, Myanmar.
| Title: | Female sectoral employment transition, trade openness, and economic growth |
|---|---|
| Author: | Phyo Pont Pont Thu |
| Journal Name: | Journal of Market Research |
| ISSN: | 3106-549X |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.58970/JMR.5019 |
| Website: | ijsab.com |
| Media: | Online |
| Volume: | 2 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Issue publication (Year): | 2026 |
| Acceptance Date: | 04/05/2026 |
| Date of Publication: | 06/05/2026 |
| PDF URL: | http://ijsab.com/wp-content/uploads/5019.pdf |
| Free download: | Available |
| Page: | 133-158 |
| First Page: | 133 |
| Last Page: | 158 |
| Paper Type: | Research paper |
| Current Status: | Published |
Cite This Article:
Thu, P.P.P. (2026). Female sectoral employment transition, trade openness, and economic growth, Journal of Market Research, 2(1), 133-158. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58970/JMR.5019
Retrieved from http://ijsab.com/wp-content/uploads/5019.pdf
About Author (s)
Phyo Pont Pont Thu, School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5670-5714
DOI: https://doi.org/10.58970/JMR.5019
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